Desktop Android, HyperSpace, and the Future of Desktop Linux
by Sam Dean - Dec. 31, 2008Comments (1)- Related Blog Posts
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While a lot of the 2009 predictions about open source and Linux are rosy, here is a decidedly negative take from Datamation. Among the predictions: The "marginal run" that Ubuntu and OpenOffice had for the desktop will come to a screeching halt, and a desktop derivative of Google Android (which is Linux-based) will be a surprise success. Some of the points made are good, but some I definitely disagree with.
Writing for Datamation, Rob Enderle cites the following case study from Microsoft. It concentrates on the city of Sudbury, which standardized on the free OpenOffice suite and then switched to fee-based Microsoft Office after costs for software support skyrocketed. "Sudbury, like most public and private entities, had limited human resources and simply couldn't staff up to the [support] needs that Open Office required," writes Enderle.
I've used both Microsoft Office and OpenOffice for years, at companies large and small, and this is how many times I sought support while using these productivity applications: zero. Sure, I understand that people developing mission critical applications might seek support, but there are robust forums and other types of support for OpenOffice and other open source applications, and the vast majority of end users of OpenOffice are hardly crying in their beers because they can't enlarge the size of their fonts.OpenOffice gets more compatible with everything with each new version, and the Go-oo variant of it, which we wrote about yesterday, introduces extra forms of compatibility for those who need it.Â
Entire communities surround top open source titles, and they are helpful communities. The Microsoft case study is a biased, cheap shot at open source, and the argument about lack of support is a tired one.
Enderle does make some good points about the prospects for desktop Linux, though. Hardly anyone in the open source community is discussing the twin-headed Hydra of Windows 7 and the Mac OS as threats to desktop Linux. Apple's market share has been on an absolute tear in the last two years, rising to more than 10 percent of the desktop market after years of languishing at around five percent. Much of that was driven by disappointment with Windows Vista, but not all of it was. Apple makes an operating system that many people consider to be best-of-breed, and its computers set the design bar for the whole tech industry.
Meanwhile, Windows 7 is starting to draw some serious buzz, especially its multi-touch interface. Pirated copies of Windows 7 are already hot items. Its arrival next year could reverse Microsoft's downhill slide and, along with the growing popularity of the Mac, start to encroach on the installed base for desktop Linux. Still, I have confidence that the long-standing goodwill that there is toward Linux won't be snuffed out, and Enderle doesn't even address the fact that fast-growing netbooks are spreading Linux and open source applications to lots of new users.
The most interesting points that Enderle makes surround rumors that Google is doing broad-based testing of a desktop derivative of Android, and the arrival of HyperSpace, which is Phoenix Technologies' Linux-based virtualization platform. In all the talk about Android, hardy anyone is forecasting that it could make a splash on desktops. Likewise, HyperSpace and other virtualization options point toward a future where we might not be content with only one operating system, which might very well benefit Linux on the desktop. Both of these trends will be compelling to follow in 2009.
