Is Linux Mint Really Eating Ubuntu's Lunch?

by Sam Dean - Feb. 10, 2012Comments (13)

Because of the way many Linux distributions make their way into the wild unfettered by commercial overlords, it's sometimes hard to draw a precise bead on who is using what flavor of Linux. In the world of commercial operating systems, by contrast, it's easy as pie to identify Microsoft Windows and Mac OS as the most widely used platforms.

Recently, there has been a lot of hubbub about Linux Mint becoming the new Ubuntu, with many people citing the Unity interface as the reason for an exodus from Ubuntu. Is there really an Ubuntu exodus?

Lots of people are claiming that Mint is the new Ubuntu, poised to become the top-of-mind Linux distribution that the masses think of first whenever the word Linux is mentioned. But how popular Mint really is depends on whose numbers you trust.

DistroWatch is often cited as a source for how many users are on various Linux distributions, but it's worth remembering that DistroWatch's numbers are based on hits to its web pages. In December of last year, that metric did show Linux Mint users strongly outnumbering Ubuntu users. However, ZDNet notes that there is a better metric:

"By contrast, the Wikimedia Traffic Analysis Report - Operating Systems shows that in October 2011 there were 16,924,000 hits on Wikimedia pages from computers running Ubuntu and 556,000 hits from those running Linux Mint (Wikimedia notes that due to server outages these numbers are approximately 7 percent too low). By December 2011 these figures had risen to 29,432,000 and 642,000 respectively."

Wow, that's a big difference in number of users between Ubuntu and Mint, with Ubuntu way out in front. And, while nobody's Linux distro usage numbers are perfect, the WikiMedia numbers are believable. For one thing, Ubuntu has been an entrenched and popular distribution for many years--an advantage that doesn't fade over night.

Distro usage is a moving target, though. In an informal poll late last year, Susan noted that most visitors to her site were using Ubuntu, but Mint usage was so close that the two platforms were basically tied for popularity. And, Mint has a lot of momentum in the press. We'll see, in 2012, how these two leading Linux distributions fare. Just make sure to take everyone's numbers with a grain of salt.

 



Khürt Williams uses OStatic to support Open Source, ask and answer questions and stay informed. What about you?



13 Comments
 

"Recently, there has been a lot of hubbub about Linux Mint becoming the new Ubuntu, with many people citing the Unity interface as the reason for an exodus from Ubuntu. Is there really an Ubuntu exodus?"


It's why I made the switch on my personal machine. And we keep all our Linux machines at work on an older version of Ubuntu to avoid Unity (as well as the other problems the newest Ubuntu release brought).


0 Votes

Consider this - web site hits show installed base NOT new installs.

Even if Minit had been the *only* distro installed over say the last 3 months, the huge exsiting installed base of Unbuntu would be much much higher and web hits reflect this, not the currently most popular.

When MS wakes up to this little fact, that "installed base" only reflects the past, it will probably be too late for them. PC Sales will continue to drop as most devices are not "wrokstations" but email/browsing/games devices.


0 Votes

I think that Ubuntu bolted at just the right time. Enough of the newbie's just don't give a rat's ... about Cinnamon, Gnome, KDE or whatever. They just want something that is easy for folk to pick up fast and deploy easily with a good consistent ecosystem.


BTW as someone who teaches in an advanced technical field I see a trend among the bright kids comming through: they are more interested in fast function (and OSource goodness) than screwing around with endless customisations and configs - I see a very bright future for Ubuntu to be honest...


Just one request to the Canonical cadre's, once you have a unified PC, TV, Phone etc. ecosystem please bake it well before it is released. It has to out do apple in terms of solidness as well as prettiness and intuition.


Also, hats off for taking some of the bile of the 'community' with a pinch of salt. Many of the comments I have read on the threads... come from folk out there who need to get a bit of sunlight through the window. Then out of the garage. Then leave mom's house. Then get some (non-facebook) friends. Then invite them over to their 45th birthday party - without any Starwars costumes .... And pleez move on from the 1$ TB food court taco's you scare the teenage girls in the ques


0 Votes

I have switched from Ubuntu (that I've been using since 6.06) to LinuxMint as a few weeks ago... because I don't agree with the way Ubuntu is going on the desktop, I use to love making Linux look and feel the way I wanted to by putting time and energy into it, hance the LFS/Gentoo era ... But if a distrobution needs less time and energy making it the way I like it, I'd rather switch to the distro that fits my needs...


I've been a long time Linux User, my Primary Linux Workstations timeline includes:


- Slackware

- Debian 2.x

- Redhat 5

- Caldera

- Mandrake 5.2 (RH Fork) - 8.0 (Contributor)

- LFS

- Gentoo 0.06 - (ebuild Contributor)

- Ubuntu 6.06 - 11.10 (Bug Squisher)

- LinuxMint 12


But that what open and being free to choose other distrubutions is about....


0 Votes

I moved from Ubuntu to Debian last year because I didn't want the Unity interface. I also didn't like the way Ubuntu tried to link me into social networking, instant messaging & all the other services I don't use.


Although I like the Gnome desktop I would like to drop a lot of the extras that are integrated with it. I'm currently thinking of trying LXDE.


0 Votes

The break down is a norm of mis-reporting, and not clarifying.


There are many 'Ubuntu Hits'...


Nothing stating 'Unity' or 'Meerkat' or any other level of Ubuntu...


Just Ubuntu.


The misreporting (meaning, not reporting correctly) of the breaking away from Ubuntu "Unity" says,something, and nothing.


Many refuse to upgrade (ergo, there is Ubuntu hits, with No Unity, but other levels from before the crime at 11.04.


I know many are looking for something (and Mint is not it) to go to. But, Ubuntu 10.04 or 10.10 is what is running, not Unity.


Until those numbers are fully explained, they mean nothing.


Heck. They even omit all the various 'desks' you can use in Either Mint, Unity or Gnome 2.xx, 3.xx etc.


Report the true facts, not the feel good ones that mean nothing. please.


What you see as a bright future, is not necessarily the case


0 Votes

Wiki page hits are not a very reliable measure of an OS success by itself. Another way to look at that data is that nearly 17 million Ubuntu users needed help with their OS, while only 600,000 Mint users needed help. I've used both Ubuntu and Mint and there is no question that Mint provides a better initial experience, whether it's an easier to user UI or better hardware support for new users.


Now, if the Wiki pages hits also recorded which versions of Ubuntu and Mint were used, that would be a much better indicator whether users are migrating away from Ubuntu and towards Mint.


0 Votes

The numbers don't mean a thing. There are a lot of Ubuntu users in those numbers that HATE Unity (myself included). The fact that I run Ubuntu doesn't means I haven't installed cinnamon.


Mint will never eat Ubuntu because Mint is Ubuntu!


0 Votes

"Wiki page hits are not a very reliable measure of an OS success by itself. Another way to look at that data is that nearly 17 million Ubuntu users needed help with their OS, while only 600,000 Mint users needed help."


You misread something. With those volumes of visit we are talking about wikipedia.org sites and i can hardly thing them as your first choice when looking solution for issue.


I could as well say that 17 million ubuntu users are reading about history and 600k mint users needed help with their computers ;)


0 Votes

At the end of the day it doesn't matter that much which distro is more popular so long as the total number of people using them is growing and fixes and improvements done in one distro are fed back to upstream (Debian or the upstream project) so that all can benefit.


0 Votes

once people get comfortable they don't like change (especially programmers lol). Unity takes some getting used to and it will get better and better but nothing out there beats ubuntu for business or school wanting to roll out linux desktops. who else does LTS for free? i am sure a few will pull a harlan ellison and 'buy up all the old typewriters' as it were, but the rest will go with ubuntu. anything else is just silly.


0 Votes

I think people are forgetting what the point of Linux has become. FREEDOM and OPTIONS. Other distributions are not the enemy, they are CHOICES! The enemy is not other distributions, the enemy is Microsoft and APPLE! It doesn't matter what distribution is being used most, just that these choices are available to use in the first place! Quit the bickering, quit the infighting, quit trying to be the best Linux distribution available. Be happy in our pleasantries, Linux is different things for different people, and the ability to be free to make those choices. We are not being given by others what they think is best for us. We are free to use what we want. In the end, all this "fragmentation", as people are calling it now, is not a bad thing. It demonstrates the PURPOSE of Linux. It is a good thing! The more options, the more choices that come, shows what we are about. And if we don't end up on top, so what? Are you using it. Do you love it? Then who cares what is number 1. In the end, Linux is different from the others. And that is all we need to be.


0 Votes

A heads up.


With Cinnamon maturing a little (Mind you, there are still very rough edges) , there may be hope for those, like me, that can not stand Unity, Gnome 3, or the farce they call Classic Gnome.


I have been using it (Cinnamon 1.3) in a fresh install of Mint 12. for over 24 hours or up and down time.


I repeat... There are some rough edges.


Many of the tools are hard to understand, figure out, or, take a lot of puttering around with. The results will eventually remind you of something like the old 2.xx Gnome.


You can raise the toolbar from the sewer and put it on the top of the screen, but...


Until you figure out how to get rid of the stupid hot spot located in your 'now very important corner.' you will be very close to putting your foot through your screen. (Even the instructions I found, accidentally, were not clear, though there may be clearer ones out there)


(hint, you get rid of 'Overview hot corner' in the tools toy (in Overview, a name with absolutely not meaning to the stupid problem, but, I am not an insider for what they ain't tellin')


There is some documentation, and some lack of it.


They are trying, and THIS one is not near as bad as 1.2.


As I said, I am living with it.


And, it is 10,000% better than my first 10 days trying to make dis-Unity only stink horribly...


Kudos for their efforts, a seemingly progressing Work in Progress. I hope you succeed to your profit and joy.


(Logging in to forums didn't work this weekend, for a new account)


Since I fiddle with installs, I now have Kernel 3.2xx in from Linux... works great.


There are no US repositories, at this time, and my 'nearest' is Japan.


The search engine had worked for most of what I wanted, and if it gives privacy, as promised, that beats the heck out of the big guys that promise give it to the gov't guy and sell to other buyers. (oh, and torpedo the competion)


Since it works... (which dis-Unity never did, for me)

And since it has not given me much heartache (not so with dis-Unity)

And since it is improving well... (I gave up on three Unity fiascos 11.04, 11.10 and 12.who cares?)


I am not necessarily a full blooded convert...


But, I have not been badly bloodied as I was with brand x.


0 Votes
Share Your Comments

If you are a member, to have your comment attributed to you. If you are not yet a member, Join OStatic and help the Open Source community by sharing your thoughts, answering user questions and providing reviews and alternatives for projects.


Promote Open Source Knowledge by sharing your thoughts, listing Alternatives and Answering Questions!