Is the Growth of Open Source Sustainable?
by Lisa Hoover - Mar. 18, 2008Comments (3)Fellow OStatic blogger Joe Brockmeier took an insightful look yesterday at why open source is growing at an amazing pace. He posits that "the open source model allows agile development by disperse groups of people that can build on the already massive foundation of open source libraries and applications." While I agree that open source projects are springing up in record numbers, I hope it also remains a community that can sustain itself and ultimately deliver what it promises.
For every successful open source project like Mozilla's Firefox or Red Hat's Fedora, there are hundreds that stumble along for a long time or die a slow death before ever getting off the ground. Since many -- if not most -- open source developers volunteer their time while also trying to manage work, family, and other obligations, it's no surprise that some projects can take seemingly forever to reach 1.0.
As the recent reorganization at The Chandler Project has demonstrated, throwing money at something isn't always a panacea. Despite a room full of paid developers and the rather deep pockets of willing backer Mitch Kapor, the application hasn't reached 1.0 yet after seven (seven?!) years.
There are differing accounts of what happened, who's to blame, and even where The Chandler Project is going from here, but that isn't really the point. The point is, while it's wonderful to see the recent flurry of activity in the open source community, is it something that can be sustained over time?
In his post, Brockmeier explored how Tasque, a simple task manager, went from a drawing board concept to released code in a matter of weeks. That's a commendable pace, to be sure. Currently, there are over 50 free text editors being worked on by developers across the globe. Ten years from now, some will be abandoned, some will move slowly but surely along, and still more will be see faster and more stable releases than all the rest. Which projects will end up like Chandler, and which -- like Tasque -- will rocket ahead practically overnight?
Well, that depends on several things intrinsic to each project. Some open source projects need money to stay on track, some need more of a developer's time. Some need less politics, while others need more politics. Each environment has its unique challenges and joys, but they all share one thing in common: a dedicated community.
On one hand, the beauty of open source is that it offers a level playing field where anyone with a dream and a concept can develop whatever they want. Unfortunately, that may also be one of the biggest drawbacks. The fact that anyone can jump into the open source pool, means a lot of people will. One thing I've heard from every developer I've ever talked to is that developing an application is a lot of very hard work. If open source continues to grow at its current "amazing pace," I hope the community has the endurance to run the marathon, not just the sprint race.
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