Lenovo Analyst: [A Circa-1998 Version of] Linux on Netbooks Is Doomed

by Kristin Shoemaker - Apr. 21, 2009Comments (1)

Because it's only proper to give credit where it's due, Matt Kohut, Worldwide Competitive Analyst for Lenovo, could be spot on in his prediction that Linux will remain a niche market on netbooks. Heck, netbooks could be called a niche market -- I guess it would all come down to how you define and apply "niche" in given areas.

Usually, when someone (particularly an industry analyst) puts forth such a prediction, it is followed by the reasoning that drew him to such a conclusion. Kohut explained his theory to TECH.BLORGE, highlighting a few issues Linux grapples with today, and many, many more that were laid to rest years ago.

I have to say a few words in Kohut's defense. The TECH.BLORGE interview seems less a flow of conversation, and more a collection of sound bytes. Perhaps, framed by the wider discussion, his statements would seem less comical and more logical. He does, in a few cases, make valid points (though his supporting statements often detract from his arguments). What's most significant about this piece, even if portions are out of context, is that Linux outreach (for lack of a better word) is as vital in the "career techie" community as it is in the "non-techie" demographic.

Unfortunately for Kohut, his strongest argument on why OEMs are hesitant to roll out Linux netbooks (the sometimes complicated world of supporting peripherals on diverse hardware -- and the fact that this can be variable across distributions) is completely overpowered by how outdated (or simply puzzling) his other statements are.

All right, I have a favorite reason why Linux will remain niche: "You have to know how to decompile codes and upload data, stuff that the average person, well, they just want a computer." I have used Linux for many years. I have used binary files, I have compiled from source. Compiling from source is a decent thing to know how to do, but for all intents and purposes, if you "just want a computer," there's no need. The application you need will most likely be in the distribution's repositories, and clicking a check box in a GUI will install it -- and any necessary dependencies. I've also uploaded data to Flickr. I've done that on Linux and Windows. I've seen a lot of average people who just want a computer do the same -- more often than I do.

Admittedly, all these years, I've never decompiled any code. It'd be fun to try, but I'm not a programmer, so the end result would probably be less than useful.

All kidding aside, I'm not sure how closely these quote snippets reflect the larger picture Kohut was trying to paint. The quotes, even out of context, are painful, and to say that many see Linux today much as it was in 2001 isn't untrue.

It boils down to, again, outreach and education geared to what the audience needs -- and wants -- to know about Linux. If Linux remains a niche operating system so be it, but hopefully it won't be so due to misinformation.