On Desktop Linux, the Mac, and Market Share

by Sam Dean - Jun. 09, 2009Comments (10)

There is an old joke, popular among venture capitalists, that goes like this: Two guys are walking in the wilderness, when they spot a huge bear speeding toward them, gnashing its teeth. One of the guys pulls a pair of running shoes out of his backpack and starts putting them on.

"What are you doing? You can't outrun a bear," says the other guy.

"I don't need to outrun the bear," comes the answer. "I just need to outrun you."

That joke is about knowing precisely who the competition is. That's why I thought of it when I read Matt Asay's post from last year about Mark Shuttleworth identifying the Mac OS, and not Windows, as the desktop operating system to beat. Shuttleworth made comments to that effect in this Datamation interview, and I agree with him. It's right now, though, that we are really seeing the Linux desktop realize its potential, with the Mac OS still setting a good pace in the race.

In the interview above, Shuttleworth characterized the Mac as delivering a superior usability experience, which I think most Mac users know is true. But the good news is that many Linux distros and desktop environments are offering a very graphical, Mac-like interface experience now. I've been using the new KDE, and it definitely does so. Matt Asay reports today in another post on how great a usability experience you can get in Red Hat's just-released Fedora 11 operating system here. Moblin and Ubuntu Netbook Remix are also getting a lot of kudos for their easy, graphical interfaces, and both have bright futures in the red hot netbook market.

Matt writes:

"This is the state of 'desktop' Linux today: it really has nothing left to prove. It took years to become user friendly, but it has arrived, helped along by the world's move to browser-based computing."

Yes, the increasing amount of time we spend in browsers, where we're often using browser-based applications, is opening doors for the Linux desktop. I have a Linux netbook, designed from the ground up mainly for browsing, and it's absolutely irrelevant that I don't have Windows on it. Not to mention the fact that it boots far faster than any Windows machine does.

Desktop Linux still has some ground to make up when it comes to compatibility. I think it's great that the new Fedora 11 offers Microsoft Exchange interoperability, for example, and that's been a long time coming. There are still too many problems with drivers and hardware compatibility with Linux, though.

These problems will get ironed out. Linux has over one percent of the desktop market already, and if it can get to five percent, it will be sitting right at the market share level that the Mac commanded for many years. There's no reason an operating system has to dominate all desktops to usher in lots of innovation. In fact, many Linux users wouldn't want total desktop domination, because the malware purveyors always head toward the platform that has that kind of share, and for other reasons.

Five perecent market share for desktop Linux, right where the Mac sat for so many years, is a good goal for desktop Linux. And Shuttleworth is still right that the Mac OS is the competition to focus specifically on.

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by Marco on Jun. 09, 2009

I totally agree with Mark. Actually I wrote a Artical about that independent from him:

http://rockiger.com/en/content/positioning-linux-desktop-market-or-why-h...

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by Anna Medlin on Jun. 09, 2009

It is unfortunate that Red Hat tabled its Linux Desktop plans. I have been using Fedora Core 10 (can't wait for Leonidas!), and it is very impressive.

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by James DSouza on Jun. 10, 2009

The other problem I have had with Linux is that some times it fails to recognize hardware. I installed Ubuntu on a Dell Server and wanted to use it as a workstation. Ubuntu could not detect my flat screen monitor and the resolution really sucked. I replaced Ubuntu with FC10 and it worked fine.

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by Peter Brook on Jun. 10, 2009

Apple has too much momentum. Look at the buzz and hype around Snow Leopard. Good luck trying to dislodge them from the 'alternative' desktop market.

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by Dave Lyon on Jun. 10, 2009

Yes, Linux is a desktop operating system but I think in many ways, we're not competing with Macs or even Windows. Those products are, well, products. A set of features in a box. Linux offers something different- a box with any feature you care to put in or get working.

Choice is king in the open source world. Unfortunately, choice is not what most people want. Many 'professionals' out there like architects, builders, designers, etc., owe their livelihood or a chunk of it to the fact that they are paid to make decisions for others.

I'm not saying Linux should stop being Linux. I'm saying that to succeed with the vast majority of people, Linux distributions need to standardize better and provide a car rather than a car factory. More thoughts at http://eazely.com/archives/apps/518

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by an anonymous user on Jun. 11, 2009

Linux is the real marginal operating system with just 1 % market share according to Net Applications. I took many, many years for Linux to reach single percent share. With that rate, Linux will never take over the desktop, it will remain a marginal operating system behind Mac and Windows.

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by smacuser on Jun. 11, 2009

Hate to say it but linux will never gain in the desktop market, they need to stay focused to taking a hugh share of the enterprise market. Problem is opensource and developers don't have strict project plans or loyalty. I see alot of devs moving to ubanto instead of making fedora better, they can pretty much do what they want when they want, a hugh push like gento is NUMBER ONE only until something else shiny comes along. No one remembers the large BSD companies that had even a larger share of desktops and servers than Red hat anymore, cause devs found a shiny linux coin on the floor and moved on.

Linux would have to be distributed easily by dvd, in a box with full help support, easier to use than the Mac os , support most hardware/devices with no interaction, support 2/3's of todays software (ms office)( with point and click install /uninstall), and that is not the case today nor will it be the case for some time. so no linux will never gain the desktop market. Could only happen if apple gained 80%, and MS was bankrupt.

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by an anonymous user on Jun. 13, 2009

http://us.st12.yimg.com/us.st.yimg.com/I/redlightrunner_2036_112640024

Oh well...

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by an anonymous user on Jul. 23, 2009

Linux will come because so many people and companies help to perfect this system.

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by Jared on Sep. 21, 2009

With the success of the iPod, Apple has poured money into advertisements for Mac. Although I agree that the Mac strategy is more realistic than competing for the Windows market share, I think Linux would be foolish to spend a lot of energy and resources competing with them in the desktop arena.

Netbook OSs are the ticket, and they already have their foot in the door with Easy Peasy and Ubuntu Netbook Remix.

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