One of the latest reports from Forrester, "Enterprise Desktop and Web 2.0/SAAS Platform Trends, 2007" is starting to make its way around media outlets on the web. The Forrester folks tracked software trends in major categories across 50,000 users month-by-month, and now their conclusions are out. Depending on how you look at it, they're either good or bad for open source.
Although it will cost you $279 to read the entire report, it's fairly easy to find the basic statistics online. Let's start with one that's not so encouraging: Windows still rules the roost when it comes to the enterprise desktop. 95% of business users still run Windows. Although Vista has been a disaster, it hasn't caused people to switch to Linux: rather, Windows XP usage remains high. True, Apple has tripled its market share in 1 year - but that still leaves them with only 4.2% of the market. And, of course, Apple is a mixed blessing for open source.
On the other hand...like Vista, IE7 has landed in the marketplace with a resounding thud. IE6's market share is declining, and the users aren't going to IE7: they're going to Firefox, which doubled to 18% over the course of the year (without making a push to attract enterprise users). With the imminent release of Firefox 3, it seems likely that Firefox's wins in the browser market will continue.
So what's the deciding factor that makes Firefox a success story? It's easy to point to things like IE7's poor standards support and badly-implemented security system. But there's another factor at work here: Firefox also works in Windows. If 95% of the desktops out there belong to Windows, then the only open-source projects that can possibly get widespread traction (barring a Linux revolution that seems increasingly unlikely as time goes on) are those that work in the dominant software ecosystem. It's a lesson that some other projects might want to take to heart.