For any operating system or software platform to succeed, the key is winning majority interest from application developers, and that's been proven many times historically. For example, Microsoft's dominance in desktop computing operating systems is directly tied to winning over many more application developers in its early days than other operating systems were able to attract. That's what makes a new report from Ovum Research notable. It predicts that Android will replace Apple's iOS as the most important platform to developers over the next 12 months.
Ovum's annual survey of developers placed Android on top of other mobile platforms. “A smartphone platform’s success is dictated not only by the pull of consumers and the push of handset vendors and mobile operators but also by a healthy economy of applications delivered by third-party developers. Therefore, it is important for all players in the smartphone ecosystem to understand the choices developers are making today and the downstream impact of those choices,” said Adam Leach, devices & platforms practice leader at Ovum and author of the research, in a statement.
Notably, Ovum' survey also revealed changes in cross-platform development trends:
"The research also shows a move away from traditional cross-platform mobile application development approaches (e.g. Java, Flash, WAP). Instead, developers are focusing their efforts on web-based standards (e.g. HTML5), which seem to be the preferred approach to building cross-platform applications."
If Ovum's survey results do signal important shifts in developer interest in Android this year, predictions about Android's coming dominance on smartphones may prove true sooner rather than later.
Ovum's survey also showed that developers are increasingly interested in BlackBerry OS and Microsoft Windows Phone, though. One thing's for sure: This year, we're likely to continue to see a highly fragmented mobile platform arena, where developers and users have to be shrewd about where to place their bets.