OStatic

The Open Source Crystal Ball

The end of the year is a self-indulgent time, when those who write about technology stop making lists of the best, worst, and most mind-numbingly mediocre applications they find and pause to make lists about tech trends in the upcoming year.

Assessing the past is easy: it has been an interesting year for open source software. Predictions that come to pass, unless suitably vague, just fall into the "lucky guess" category. The one prediction I am sure of for 2009: Open source software will hold its own when it comes to growth and adoption.

My other predictions? What do you think?

Large (and small) open source companies will feel a real pinch, those in the middle will have an opening.

The larger companies that deal with open source software, such as Sun Microsystems, Novell, and Red Hat, are going to continue to have a tough time of it. Sam's touched on this before. Red Hat seems best positioned to weather the storm at present, while Sun has had some significant issues that show no signs of letting up.

Smaller open source companies relying on venture capital to get their businesses in gear are going to find it's harder this year. Companies that have already secured funding and have some history behind them might have a window of opportunity open. These "middle of the road" established companies have an opportunity that larger and smaller ventures don't.

Why? It's easier to maneuver a ship that's already in motion, and it's easier to steer (and even negotiate the rough spots) in a smaller vessel.

I don't think we'll "lose" Sun, Novell, or Red Hat this year. There will be some new players in the open source arena this year that will become increasingly significant.

The EVO Smart Console will announce it is shipping

I'm being unkind. The EVO Smart Console, previously billed as the "Linux Game System of Tomorrow," indicates on its newly re-designed site that these systems are available for purchase now. Envizions hasn't officially announced that these units are actually shipping. New configurations were revealed at the same time the shipping delay was announced. These units may be shipping, but between the site redesign and the news page having no archive, it's a little shaky.

Those wishing to play games on Linux needn't despair. It's likely that it will come to pass that Valve's Steam client will make its Linux debut this year.

Everywhere we look, there's a penguin

Yes, it will be the "Year of the Linux Desktop," and everyone's mom, grandma, girlfriend, and Amish neighbor will use Linux. All right, even without consulting the Magic 8-ball I know that's not the case. Without a doubt, Linux will be on the periphery of more and more "casual" (and even totally disinterested) computer users. The increase in Linux-based "instant on" technology, the economic crunch, and the advent of Linux/open source appliances that aren't just "computers" will capture the attention of many who've never given open source software much thought.

Chrome and Firefox will duke it out, with caveats

The browsers wars of yore will spark anew. The irony is that Netscape is no longer, and IE, while being present, isn't the warring party Microsoft would've liked it to be. It's going to be Chrome and Firefox this time around, and declaring a winner even when the dust settles will be a tough call.

Why? Here are my smaller predictions: There isn't a Chrome version available for either Mac or Linux presently. They're "in the works," it's been reported, but I'd suggest that anyone on a non-Windows platform waiting for Chrome resume a normal breathing pattern. If it should happen at all in 2009, it's going to happen much later in the year.

It was a bit early to take Chrome out of beta and while Google's name recognition could as easily lend forgiveness for any snags as unleash a firestorm of ire, Firefox is not without its own unique brand of celebrity.

The browser wars will rekindle for sure this year, and the resolution won't be swift, or decisive.

OStatic will earn a place in your toolkit between the Philips head screwdriver and the anti-static wristbands

All right, so maybe you don't use anti-static wristbands, but all of us at OStatic are thinking of ways to make the site a one-stop resource for all facets of open source -- for end-users of all varieties, developers, and those just wanting to learn more. Our software section is an active database covering many applications and related open and proprietary alternatives. We encourage everyone who hasn't yet to join us, submit reviews and ask (or answer) any questions about open source projects, applications, deployment and daily use.

We've got other ideas in the works, of course, but the management team just stole my Magic 8-ball before I say too much.

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• 2009
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by an anonymous user on Dec. 23, 2008

[QUOTE]There isn't a Chrome version available for either Mac or Linux presently.....If it should happen at all in 2009, it's going to happen much later in the year[/QUOTE]

How about never? Going by Google's track record, they've never released any of their projects for GNU/Linux - it's always been Windows versions packaged in WINE. See Google's Picassa for example.

On the plus side Google do release their services on - mostly - open standards-based protocols - e.g. GMail and IMAP, Google Talk on XMPP (however, note that Google Talk Video uses a non-standard protocol and therefore won't inter-operate).

However, their software is never - AFAIK - released in native GNU/Linux versions. I wouldn't expect Chrome for GNU/Linux at all.

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by an anonymous user on Dec. 30, 2008

2009 is going to be the year where adoption of Open Source will increase, given the economic crunch. Unfortunately, companies in the space will not necessarily reap the benefits, since 'buyers' will continue to drive down prices.

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