GigaOm did an interesting piece on Wednesday called "The End of MacWorld," addressing the fact that Apple is pulling out of the Macworld trade show after January, and Steve Jobs won't do a keynote address there. The piece includes some good analysis of how rapidly technology is undermining the status quo at trade shows and conferences. Then, just yesterday, Novell announced that it is cancelling BrainShare after 20 years. Will this erosion of high-profile gatherings extend to the major open source conferences?
The GigaOm piece points the following out:
"With virtually every technology service and product a mere click away, live video streams that allow people to watch events in real time — and liveblogging for those that want to read about them — trade shows are a relic of the past, like pinups from the 1940s. What’s not replaceable is the community these trade shows foster."
That last sentence is very important, in my opinion. Apple explained its decision to bail on Macworld by saying that it does a fine job of reaching customers through its retail stores and in other venues. But "reaching customers" wasn't all there was to Apple's presence at Macworld. At that trade show, the combined effect of Steve Jobs on stage, top music artists like John Legend and Kanye West showing up with acoustic sets, and, most of all, a kind of shared pride among attendees in all things geeky and innovative were the order of the day.
That's why Apple is making a community-oriented mistake in pulling out of Macworld. Novell blames its decision to axe BrainShare on the economy, which I can understand much more than the Apple decision. Novell's stock has been punished in the downturn and the company's market capitalization is about even with the amount of cash it has. It has no choice.
So will we see these kinds of decisions spill over to other major open source conferences (BrainShare was partially an open source conference)? I think that's not likely in the short run, given the importance of conferences to fostering all-important community among users and developers. OSCON, one of the biggest conferences, is moving up in the world. Previously held in Oregon--a fairly out of the way place for a big conference--it is now moving to San Jose, the heart of Silicon Valley.
Sure, financial issues can put the kibosh on any conference, as evidenced by the end of BrainShare. However, with regard to the majority of open source conferences, I think the community buzz they generate--and the way people in open source keep their eyes on community--will keep them going.The fact that you can get much of the video-based content and presentations online these days does threaten physical trade shows, but on the open source side, I think the chance to meet and greet will continue to make a difference.