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Is Linux Enough for Novell and Red Hat to Thrive?

While Novell's report yesterday that its quarterly Linux revenue soared 22 percent year-over-year was a positive note, and one that was expected, the real upshot of the company's earnings report was that every other part of its business sank. Overall, its revenues slipped to $216 million for the quarter, compared to $245 million for the comparable quarter last year. Despite the company's drum pounding about the promise and growth of its Linux business, Novell is a public company that needs revenues to come from more than one aspect of its business.?

As Matt Asay notes, Red Hat's financial performance has been much rosier during the recession, but there are also questions arising about why Red Hat's revenue growth is slowing. Both companies need more than just Linux business to grow over the long run, and there are good reasons to believe that Red Hat may be the one of the two that pulls a rabbit--or a series of them--out of its red hat.?



Upcoming Linux News Looms From Novell and Red Hat

As The VAR Guy notes, between today and September 4th, a lot of key information will roll in about the Linux market, and how Linux is faring in IT departments. Novell is slated to release its third-quarter financial results on Thursday of this week. The company has recently run into trouble drumming up deals and business on the Linux front, affecting its earnings significantly, but there could be news of a turnaround. Meanwhile, Red Hat has its Red Hat Summit approaching, September 1st through 4th in Chicago, and the excellent roster of speakers includes EnterpriseDB CEO Ed Boyajian, IBM's Bob Sutor, and many others. I'm betting that both Novell and Red Hat will have good news, and some interesting data to digest.


Red Hat Invests and Supports its Way to Another Solid Quarter

Even as the economy has stayed in the doldrums, Red Hat continues to post strong quarterly financial results. Late Wednesday, the company reported first quarter revenues of $174.4 million, up 11 percent from $156.6 million a year earlier. Profits were also up, with quarterly earnings of $18.5 million, or 10 cents a share, up from a profit of $17.3 million, or 8 cents a share, for the same quarter last year.

Red Hat?s growth is driven in part by our ability to help enterprise customers save money in a challenging IT spending environment, said CEO Jim Whitehurst. Our open source solutions drive new capabilities, efficiencies and functionality into the mission critical infrastructure of our customers.? Red Hat's total cash, cash equivalents and investments as of May 31, 2009 sat at a whopping $884.5 million, which is more evidence of the investment savvy that Whitehurst and Red Hat's top brass have.



During a Seismic Week for Open Source, Take a Lesson from Red Hat

This post from ZDNet and this one from Matt Asay provide some good angles on the momentous changes we've seen on the open source front this week. The fallout and immense industry changes that we're likely to see as Oracle digests Sun Microsystems are staggering to consider. As Dana Blankenhorn says, Oracle is going to control three crown jewels of open source in the form of Java, OpenOffice, and MySQL--among the most widely used projects and among those with the largest developer communities outside Linux itself. Meanwhile Matt points out that only Red Hat is thriving as a public, pure open source company, which I would agree with. So what has Red Hat done right?


How Will Novell and Canonical Answer the Open Source Channel Alliance?

As Kristin noted earlier, this week, Red Hat and IT services distribution provider SYNNEX announced the formation of the Open Source Channel Alliance. The alliance is squarely aimed at taking federated and logically connected collections of top open source applications and platforms straight to resellers. I think Matt Asay gets it right when he refers to the move as pulling a Microsoft, in terms of aiming to leverage the sales channel. I suspect that all of the commercial open source players involved with the alliance will be well served by the arrangement, and, as The Var Guy notes, the alliance begs the question of how Novell and Canonical are going to react.?



Novell CEO Stresses Interoperability, Data Centers for Suse Linux 11

While Novell recently reported down earnings due in large part to shortfalls in its Linux business, Matt Asay notes that the company remains very focused on Linux. He singles out CEO Ron Hovsepian's comments today at the Open Source Business Conference on Suse Linux 11 and data centers, Novell's efforts to make Suse Linux appropriate for netbooks, and more. The thing that really caught my eye is something I wrote about recently: Novell's focus on interoperability.?


Behind Red Hat's Consistency: A Surprising Concentration on Investing

Savio Rodrigues is out with a very interesting post on Red Hat's financial consistency. Long story short, he concludes that over the past two years a whopping 48 percent of Red Hat's income before taxes is classified as Other Income. Specifically, this refers to interest income the company generates and capital gains on investments, and it's clear that the mix between this type of income and earnings generated from the company's core software business are about evenly matched. Is this good or bad?


Novell's Earnings Down--Linux Business Disappoints

Novell has reported its financial performance for the November-to-January quarter, and the results aren't pretty. Earnings dropped 36 percent to $11 million, compared to $17 million in the year-earlier quarter. Sales fell short of analysts' expectations, although the earnings were very slightly above expectations. Novell's CEO Ron Hovsepian didn't just pin the results on the economy. He said invoicing was below our expectations in this weak economy,? and he noted that our Linux performance did not meet our expectations. What lies ahead for Novell's Linux business?


Novell's CEO Says He's Looking At Acquisitions

At the end of last year, I made the prediction that we'll see substantially more mergers and acquisitions on the open source front this year. Researchers at the 451 Group have also made that prediction, and provided some good data to back it up.
? When I wrote about the topic, I concentrated mainly on the low market capitalizations for public open source companies and how the valuations make them acquisition targets. Now, there are signs appearing that at least one of the big, public open source companies may in fact go on the acquisition hunt itself. As PCWorld reports, Novell's president and CEO Ron Hovsepian confirmed in India today that Novell is looking for acquisitions to fill out its product line.


Layoffs at Novell

Reports came in from the blogsphere earlier this morning concerning layoffs at Novell. The news immediately follows Sun Microsystems' announcement that it is laying off about 18 percent of its employees, which leaves only Red Hat as the major public open source company not to announce layoffs. Matt Asay got the skinny from Novell officials, and apparently the layoffs affect fewer than 100 people. (This post was updated after earlier reports that the layoffs affected many more people.)


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