Forecasting Model Report

574 words - 3 pages

Through our process of using data analysis and comparisons of the different types of analysis that we could use we found little discrepancy between the methodologies. The data that we analyzed garnered different results throughout, however our testing remained consistent overall. The purpose of this analysis was to forecast sales for the nest year using regression analysis, weighted analysis, moving analysis and absolute average analysis. Then we agreed on that we should use the absolute average analysis to base our final forecast on due to the consistency of 1998 versus 1999 with little change.After developing our forecasting models we moved forward with determining the demand characteristics. There did not seem to be a high demand, however the stream appeared to be consistent. ...view middle of the document...

The largest differences were noted when comparing the results of we garnered from running the averages as opposed to running a regression analysis which showed larger fluctuations. Within a normal, consistent environment this would be the least accurate of all the tests that we completed.Observations of the team were that as the sales were higher the average price appeared to drop. Additionally, there was not sharp increase in revenue, with the highest being in 1994, however the highest jobs were in 1997.Variables had a minimal influence on our model. After analyzing the options we concurred that using the average price per sale fluctuates so much that we should use sales dollars to predict the revenue and costs. Using the other data given might illustrate trends not consistent with our finding.The final items that held an influence on our forecast were the limitations of the information; such as we had no company information, no seasonal data, no product information or inventory turns. Additionally, we lacked information on any type of marketing pushes or what the company targets were set at. Another possible limitation is the lack of labor and productivity statistics and measures.In conclusion, the data offered in this exercise, while easily forecasted, does not show growth over the last five years. 1999 seems to fall in line with the years compared in this test, with no significant bounces which might be seen as seasonal or influenced by marketing or economic trends. An overall view appears that numbers fall toward the end of their fiscal year, however not dramatically and then leads back into the norm at the being of the year. An stepped up forecast would need to be made if the trends in any one area are enhanced by sales and analyze and growth or weakness areas which could help aid in updating and enhancing company information.

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