Running head: POLITICAL POLLS 1
Political Polls
Tania Fernanda Valdez Cabrera
Austin Community College
Government 2305-128
POLITICAL POLLS 2
Abstract
Trust is collapsing in America, there has always been skepticism about our government and
people are more afraid than ever. Due to past experiences such as 9-11, which brought a huge
change in attitude towards our government. Again, we live in a society where Americans are
starting to question everything. Now, individuals are questioning whether or not we should trust
political polls. But why are people questioning the political polls? This happened after Donald
Trump’s success at the 2016 United States presidential election. This election was one of many
examples why our faith at polling plummeted. In 2016, Donald Trump was declared the winner
of the presidency, after the National Pre-election polls in 2016 indicated that Hillary Clinton
would win the National Popular vote. That is when a widespread perception that political polls
have failed. But, did the polls really failed? And if so, what were the reasons why?. In this paper,
I will give you my opinion on political polls and explain some of its flaws along with scholarly
sources to support my answer.
Keywords: Political polls, elections
POLITICAL POLLS 3
Political Polls
The 2016 presidential election had people questioning whether we should trust political
polls. For instance, the National pre-election polls in 2016 showed that Hillary Clinton would
win the national popular and was ahead by a 3-point margin. However, it turned out that she in
fact she won by 2 points. However, the accuracy of the poll depends on many things such as, the
conditions of the survey, the type of questions asked, the number of people sampled, and who
responds. For example, Pew Research have estimated that the response rates in telephone survey
in 1997 was 36% and have decreased greatly to 9% in 2012 (Mitchell, 2018).
What are political polls and how do they work? political polls rely on statistics to provide
an idea of how people think, feel or might act. A political poll is collected through telephone,
calls, face-to-face interviews or by mail. Here is where things get tricky. The way questions are
asked and who responds to a poll will affect the outcome. There are other issues with political
polls. First, not everyone will spend the time to respond to a phone poll. People are more likely
to respond to polls on things they feel strongly about. Second, as young people and the poor are
less likely to have both a landline and a cell phone, and since cell phone numbers are generally
unlisted polls are less and less likely to represent the views of young voters, individuals who are
out at work and the poor. According to Pew Research, cell phone-only individuals ...
